Sanders?

So for the last few weeks all I've been hearing is if Sanders is the nominee, he loses. The Sanders supporters have been saying, "look at the poll numbers, Sanders is better than Biden across the board!" Meanwhile, the people who are so interested in poll numbers when they agree with them, totally blow them off when they don't, and with Sanders, they don't.

Does any of this mean anything? Well yes. If you're a Sanders supporter, right now, you're pretty happy, it looks like he's going to win the primaries if not the nomination outright (does he get enough for the first ballot?). If you're anti-Sanders, you've got a problem because right now none of the other candidates are holding with him (Pete is closest, but does that hold?) and none of them are in position to catch him with all these people still in. So moving from right to left center, here are the others still in and what I think they need to get the nomination.

Joe Biden needs an act of God. He doesn't look good out there, and while he doesn't have the same mileage at Bernie (the oldest guy running) Joe's trip has been a lot rougher.  Bernie looks like he did a decade ago, Biden looks like a cousin of the Crypt Keeper. Joe Wins if everyone else drops out.

Mike Bloomberg also needs an act of God. As the next oldest guy running, he's also got some baggage from New York he's hauling around and looked like he was in an excitement contest with Fritz Mondale and Al Gore at the Vegas debate. The part going for him is his commercials are great. I don't think that's close to enough. He's too early to pull a Jesse the Governor Ventura. Bottom line, he' already spent over $100 million, and has high single digits in response.

Pete Buttigieg is closer, but needs a larger group to get back in this. He needs a couple dropouts, and maybe he can get somewhere. He also has a negative politically, he's gay, and that's going to turn people away. Fortunately, the vast majority of those people won't vote Blue anyway, so mostly irrelevant.

Amy Klobuchar is in serious trouble and needs drop outs to stick around. She may be the best option to Bernie, but right now, isn't there.

Elizabeth Warren is done. The only way she wins is if Bernie drops, then his support (most of it) goes right to her. Without that, I don't see she has a chance.

(note, Amy and Pete may be out of order, they're pretty close)

All that out of the way, can Bernie beat Trump?  Yes. and if you doubt that idea, turn your clock back 4 years and tell me if you thought Trump had a chance. Most Democrats didn't. He was a joke in the primaries, then started winning those, then was a joke for the general election until he won.

That's my current prediction for the primaries.